Caual Analysis 2
schematically, a causal argument or claim posits one or several causes that produce one or several effects.
different types of causalmodels
1. conditions/influences that lead to precipitating causes (conditions/influences set the stage and contribute to a climate conducive to certain effects; precipitating causes are the straw that break the camel's back)
2. near and remote causes (near - operates close in time or place to the produced effect; remote causes - linked distantly from the effect, usually arrived at through causal chain)
(ex. of causal chain: x led to y which led to z which led to effect B)
because causal relationships are always speculative and not always self-evident, we can analyze / question the veracity of causal claims (pose counterarguments):
- does argument propose most likely cause? (according to our sense)
- how well does argument explain precisely how cause leads to consequence?
also, we can question whether the proposed "cause" is really a cause at all - could be instead
I found $20 on Lombard St.; walking on Lombard is lucky, and good things happen if you walk on that street
- one-time thing - coincidence:
I found $20 on Lombard St.; if I walk there again, I will find another $20 each time
- "effect" could actually be the "cause" (reverse direction of causation):
I think Lombard St. is "lucky" only *because* I found $20 there once!
- or, both "cause" and "effect" could both be caused by an unidentified third factor:
Some drunk person lost a $20 on Lombard St. and I found it while walking there...
Hence, causation as a difficult argument to sustain:
Let's look over the following causal claims, using our handy Weston guide (rules 18-23, handed out WedMar22).
1st causal argument:
"Within a year after Gov. George Pataki passed a reinstatement of the capital punishment law on Sept. 1, 1995, a dramatic drop in violent crime was produced. After this and other major reforms in 1995, violent crimes dropped 23%, assault was down 22%, and murders dropped nearly one third."
claim? counters?
2nd causal argument:
"Of those who begin drinking at age 18, 16.6% subsequently are classified with alcohol dependence and 7.8% with alcohol abuse. If a person waits until age 21 before taking their first drink, these risks decrease by over 60%"
3rd causal argument: from Our American Jihad:
"With as many positive reactions as were shown in the weeks and months that ensued [after 9/11/2001], an equal amount of negative responses arose. Areas of the country with large Muslim populations experienced violence and hostility. ... Although not responsible ... for the [9/11] attacks ... all Muslims, Arabs, and Middle-Easterners must bear the consequences.
Many Americans categorize these people in the same company as the terrorists. This creates hatred by association. The results of this anger were racial profiling, hate crimes and a general distrust of Arabs"
take-home messages:
1) cause-effect relationships tend to be complex:
- they can be mere coincidence, or
- merely correlated, or
- the "effect" could very well be the "cause" (direction of causation actually goes in reverse), or
- both could have another (common) cause.
2) causal claims also
- need to provide an adequate explanation as to how cause lead to effects (does writer adequately explain the chain of events?)
- need to be very reasonable, the most likely cause should be posited, acc. to common sense
NB:
Your argumentative essay is due next Friday, which should use elements of argument-by-analogy, or a causal argument or analysis (as well as narrative and definition if you want to give it a nice richness of rhetoric).
rew WedMar22
ff MonMar27
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